San Francisco’s real estate market in 2024 reflected a mix of resilience and recovery amid broader economic challenges. High prices, limited inventory, and steady demand defined the landscape, with certain neighborhoods continuing to perform well despite a shifting economic backdrop.
The tech industry’s 20% workforce reduction since 2022 had a lingering impact on housing demand, contributing to a 14.7% decline in prices for condominiums and co-ops compared to the market’s peak between spring 2021 and fall 2022. However, year-over-year data showed encouraging signs of recovery. Sales of single-family homes rose 14.8%, while condominium sales increased 11.1%. Median sales prices and price-per-square-foot also saw modest gains, reflecting renewed buyer activity. The luxury segment ($3M+) also experienced healthy growth, supported by strong demand. Competitive bidding remained common, especially in desirable neighborhoods, with many properties selling quickly and above asking price.
Mortgage rates have edged upward over the last three weeks, with the 30-year fixed averaging 6.91%. Despite higher rates, buyers appear to be re-entering the market, as pending home sales continue to rise.
The first half of January typically starts slowly as the market emerges from the holiday lull. Activity is expected to build, with new and refreshed listings peaking during the busy spring selling season. Projections point to a seller’s market throughout 2025, characterized by tight inventory and sustained demand—conditions likely to support high pricing. The National Association of Realtors forecasts a 2% increase in home prices nationwide, driven by stabilizing mortgage rates and improving job and income opportunities.
Overall, 2024 laid the foundation for continued stability and growth in San Francisco’s real estate market, setting the stage for an active and optimistic year ahead.
